What happened: OPEC+ members signaled support for another production increase starting in October, albeit smaller than September’s, as demand softens and sanctions keep market frictions elevated.
Why it matters
Even modest supply tweaks ripple into refined product prices in the U.S. and Europe. For central banks, lower energy inflation would reinforce the case for rate cuts into year‑end.
By the numbers / context
- Context: quotas have risen by ~2.5 mb/d since April.
- October move: a modest additional increase under discussion.
- Capacity: Saudi Arabia and UAE hold most spare capacity.
What to watch
The final October quota number and compliance; any signal about unwinding remaining cuts sooner than planned.