Summary: The White House’s shortlist—Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh—sets up materially different policy paths. Meanwhile, candidate statements emphasize central‑bank independence amid political scrutiny.
Why it matters
Markets will price the reaction function of each candidate: Waller implies continuity on the framework; Hassett signals growth‑first optics; Warsh hints at balance‑sheet and communications shifts. Regulatory posture and coordination with Treasury will also matter.
Key facts
- Powell term ends: May 2026
- Shortlist named publicly by multiple officials
- Fed cut odds rose after the weak jobs print
What to watch
Public remarks on the neutral rate, QT’s endgame and tolerance for above‑target inflation; Senate confirmation math; any stress on Fed independence.