Summary: After cutting October official selling prices, Saudi Aramco urged some Asian buyers to take more barrels, aiming to regain market share. The International Energy Agency projects supply growth will outpace demand through 2026, with inventories swelling if current plans hold, even as OPEC+ implements a modest October output increase.
Why it matters
Cheaper OSPs and higher allocations can pull prices lower into year‑end, easing inflation for importers but pressuring producer revenues. A sustained surplus would test OPEC+ cohesion and intersect with any new sanctions or enforcement on Russian flows.
Key facts
- Saudi cut Arab Light to Asia by about $1/bbl for October; asked buyers to lift more.
- IEA: supply +2.7 mb/d (2025) and +2.1 mb/d (2026) vs demand growth of ~0.74 mb/d in 2025; H2’25 stocks could rise by ~2.5 mb/d.
- OPEC+: +137k b/d in October; Chinese offtake from Saudi seen rebounding to ~1.65 mb/d.
What to watch
Refiner runs and margins in Asia; compliance with the small OPEC+ hike; any sanctions tightening on shadow‑fleet shipments that offsets supply gains.