Summary: A Reuters poll suggests the Bank of England will slow quantitative tightening (QT) to roughly £65–70bn/yr and keep Bank Rate on hold, after gilt volatility and sticky services inflation pushed expectations for further cuts into late 2025.
What happened
The BoE has reduced gilt holdings from ~£875bn to ~£558bn since 2022, partly via active sales. Economists see the BoE easing off the accelerator—especially on long‑dated sales—while holding rates as inflation hovers near 4%.
Why it matters
- Market plumbing: Slower QT can calm long‑end gilts and funding costs for the Treasury.
- Households & firms: A steadier rate path offers planning certainty, but elevated inflation keeps real burdens high.
Key facts
- QT path: median poll ~£67.5bn/yr; potential halt to very long‑dated sales.
- Hold call: policy rate steady; further cuts not imminent.
- Expectations: long‑term UK inflation expectations at the highest since 2019.
What to watch
BoE minutes on QT mix; August CPI print; OAT–Gilt/Bund spread moves that spill over from France’s downgrade.