Summary: Estonia said three Russian MiG‑31s flew about 9 km into its airspace for roughly 12 minutes, an “unprecedentedly brazen” breach for 2025. Italian F‑35s on NATO duty intercepted the jets. The move follows recent Russian drone incursions into Poland, where military police also reported missile debris.
What happened
Tallinn summoned the Russian envoy and requested NATO Article 4 consultations. NATO called the act “reckless,” saying its air‑policing mission responded immediately. The jets had no filed flight plan, transponders off, and no ATC contact, Estonia said.
Why it matters
- Deterrence test: Back‑to‑back breaches of allied airspace probe NATO resolve and could force redeployment of air‑defence assets eastward.
- Escalation channel: Twelve minutes in sovereign airspace sharply narrows decision windows—raising miscalculation risk.
Key facts
- Location: near Vaindloo Island, ~100 km from Tallinn.
- Response: Italian F‑35s intercepted; Estonia seeks Article 4 consults.
- Context: debris found in eastern Poland after earlier drone/missile incidents.
What to watch
Whether NATO lengthens deployments, adjusts rules for cross‑border drones, and expands “Eastern Sentry”‑style posture on the Baltic flank.