The proposal
Leaked and draft documents show EU countries are preparing to phase out Russian gas in stages through 2028 and to close loopholes that could disguise Russian molecules as mere transit. One idea: presume gas entering via certain points (e.g., the Strandzha 2/Malkoclar interconnection linked to TurkStream) is Russian unless importers provide unambiguous proof to the contrary.
What it means
- Compliance burden: Traders will need chain‑of‑custody documentation and credible certificates for blended or rerouted gas.
- Regional politics: A reinforced majority could approve the plan even if a few states object, raising stakes for Hungary and Slovakia.
- Market effect: Tighter rules could shift contracts toward LNG and non‑Russian pipeline suppliers, with price volatility during the transition.
Timeline under discussion
- New contracts: Ban from January 2026.
- Existing short‑term agreements: End by mid‑June 2026.
- Long‑term contracts: End by January 2028.